Sunday, March 20, 2005

Credibility

The latest Colmar Brunton poll shows Labour still well ahead:

Labour - 46
National - 35
Greens - 5
NZF - 5
Act - 3
Maori - 1
UF - 1

This was despite a pretty tumultuous month for the government as issues such as NCEA, and the flu vaccine stole the headlines.

What this poll seems to confirm is a pretty settled mood across the electorate, with nearly all of the major pollsters now showing an entrenched gap of around 10% between the two major parties. Based on these figures, National simply cannot construct a centre-right government.

What seems to be emerging pretty early in this election year is a consensus view that Labour, rightly or wrongly, is the only Party around which a stable government will be able to be credibly built after polling day. Certainly the moronic Banks/Act episode will confirm in the minds of many that the right lack even the basic organisation, nous, and cohesion to be a serious prospect.

4 comments:

Greg Stephens said...

I don't think the 'flu vaccine issue will have any effect as the government worked its arse off to find a suitable replacement.

But the polling is all good!

Oliver said...

Indeed, very good news. Keep up the campaigning 'Bertie' :P.

Anonymous said...

What does Labout need for you to get a list seat? Around 130% ... 140% of the vote?

michael wood said...

Yes, similar odds on that happening to Don Brash having a job by October or snarky right-wingers having the gumption to use their real names!