Wednesday, April 06, 2005

Interesting Race #1

Keith Ng has written an amusing account of Mark Blumsky's campaign launch in Wellington Central. This electorate promises to be one a number of hard fought, interesting constituency seat battles this year.

A good friend of mine, Jordan Carter is the incumbent Marian Hobbs' campaign manager, while the man to whom blogging is oxygen, David Farrar is managing Blumsky's challenge. I'm sure that the campaign will be fought as hard in cyber space as it will be on the ground. From my observations of previous camapigns in Welly Central, politics gets taken more seriously in this electorate than anywhere else in the country. I guess the compact, focussed nature of the city lends itself to this, not to mention the obvious fact that a large population of parliamentary workers and assorted politicos call the electorate home.

On the raw political facts I find it difficult to see Blumsky winning. The electorate last voted a right-wing candidate in in 1996 (Prebble for ACT), and that happened in an election in which Labour polled 28%. The electorate is cosmopolitan, liberal, and filled with public service workers who are probably less than thrilled by John Keys master plan to gut the state sector. Additionally, Marian is from my observations well respected within the electorate - she's a hard working, likeable person who is also pretty good on the campaign stump.

Undoubtedly Blumsky is also a good campaigner, and he'll know the nooks and crannies of the electorate from his time as Mayor. I suspect however that it will take more than that and a campaign logo consisting of his stylised eye-brows (truly bizarre) to win the race.


Graham Watson said...

Being a former popular mayor is a huge advantage.

I have seen Jordans campaign ability before and was unimpressed, and that of David Farrar which was impressive.

Hobbs is gone.

Greg Stephens said...

Hobbs is a brillant campaigner, it takes someone special to defeat Prebble, but she did it.
Blumsky has aligned himself with the pro-V8 race people, most of whom live outside of Wellington Central. Hobbs is against it. Blusmky aligned himself whilst mayor with selling the airport, Wellington Centralites will be worrying about what that would mean for them.

Hobbs will easily get in.

spooks said...

Not so. Franks will not campaign at all for the electorate vote - effectively handing the seat to Blumsky. Welcome Marian to list membership.

Jordan said...

So kind of you to remember me, Graham. In your drug- and alcohol-induced haze from the time, I'm surprised you can remember anything. Half a decade is a long time in politics, as they (don't) say. You did well with ACT, didn't you? Gave them the old AUSA treatment (i.e. destroy them from the inside). Congrats :)

Graham Watson said...

LOL. Well what a rant Jordan, looks like you haven't changed. I had thought to give you the benefit of the doubt.

Sounds like the desperate moanings of someone severly beaten in many campaigns, especially in your use of adhominem. Not classy.

That someone who drank as much as you did can attack me for also drinking is insane, and highly hypocritical. I'd say you suffer from "sour grapes" but you'd probably argue this demonstrated an alcoholic tendency toward wine.

And drug induced? Who would win high court cases or general meeting debates if they were drug induced?

And ACT? During my time as party manager we achieved our best ever election result. The role was performed in a very professional manner.

I retired from this role well before the current demise of ACT in the polls and certainly have played no part in any internal goings on, as I am not a member.

Lick your wounds, you are about to encounter the biggest failure in your career of poor campaigns, by losing Wellington central.