The Polls go crazy
The polls are all over the place:
Colmar Bruton last Sunday: Nats 9 ahead
Midweek TV3: Labour 9 ahead
Herald Friday: Deadheat
SST today: Nats 7 ahead
Herald on Sunday (snap): Labour 3.5 ahead.
...with a Colmar Brunton poll coming tonight which the Herald on Sunday suggested would contrast with the SST result.
What to make of it? Two things I think. The first is that there is exceptional volatility, particularly in National's vote. Secondly, there is no doubt heading into the final week that it is very close.
In my view, a combination of the Leaders performances, and on the ground organisation to turn out the vote, will probably decide the election.
Knife edge stuff!
30 comments:
Michael, do you think you can win?
He will get the last laugh if he does...
does any Labour candidate expect to win a safe National seat, when 2002 was clearly the high tide mark for Labour in that electorate??
i think part of the volatility is that the pollsters are pushing undecideds to express a preference, when really they don't know yet.
Well at a lowly 58/65 on the Labour list, Labour either has great confidence in the ability of Michael to win the seat, or no real confidence in him at all, after all even Leila Boyle is five places higher at 53.
Ryan, I would not be so arrogant as to make predictions as to what decisions Pakuranga voters may make on election day - we simply put the hard yards in and accept the result.
Obviously it's hard work for a Labour candidate to win in a seat with a long-standing National MP. That said, MMP means that every single Party vote we win counts, regardless of the electorate vote outcome.
bet ya don't even make it to 8500 in both votes
Do a Nash and give up now
Well Maurice gave up trying anything many years ago....
Oh come on now Michaels mum, for the sake of the wee boy get him to stand aside before he humiliates himself.
Wonder if he will front at Maurices HQ unlike last time?
Wonder if Maurice will front up at the candidates' debate tonight...
No, Maurice wasn't there, but Michael wiped the floor with Judith Collins, who was at her most snarkily unattractive....
Mikes Mum,
I didn't know things were so bad that Michael has resorted to cleaning floors to make a crust.
Hoho... Don't give up your dayjob, Whaleoil.
hmmm I must admit Collins wasn't quite as feeble as that effort from Whaleoil....
Ummm, I don't have a day job or any job for that matter. Job is such a common word. It ranks up there with Boss, Tory etc words that you all are very familiar with.
well i must say i'm stunned - Whale Oil considers having a job beneath him. i think Whale Oil has inadvertently unmasked himself - he is in fact Charles of Windsor!
Charles Windsor or Prince of Wales. Show some respect.
No wonder Whaleoil always seems so grumpy then! Having to wake up next to that every morning! :-p
You can't blame the government for that though, Whaleoil!
spooks i'm quite happy to talk about Clark's Canterbury appointment yesterday - don't you find the attacks by young nats, on the basis of physical appearance, disgraceful? sure disagree on policy, but to criticise someone on the basis of their teeth?? a new low in this campaign i think.
also just to clarify yet again - i for one am not a Labour supporter, never have been.
1. my comment about Whaleoil being the Prince of Wales was a joke - and he is actually on here to defend himself in the face of such jokes, as opposed to many others attacked by the likes of yourselves. Not saying that you shouldn't/aren't entitled to defend him yourself of course, go for it.
2. I note that Helen Clark's appearance is frequently criticised and yet few such barbs are thrown in the direction of male politicians. I'm sick of the double standard, and rather than saying nasty things about the appearances of men too I'd rather we stopped saying irrelevant and nasty things about the appearances of women. it really doesn't have any bearing on policy, or political ability. i don't see why it is considered "dishonest" for a woman to use an airbrushed photo when it isn't for men. most candidates will have had some kind of alteration to their appearance made in their publicity material, directly (computer changes) or indirectly (makeup, lighting). i find it much more concerning in cosmetic adverts and fashion mags, where they are directly misleading people about the effects of their products.
3. actually i have a very strong view about low-paid workers. i haven't followed the Taito Field saga in detail but i find exploitation of that nature abhorrent. which is one of the reasons i am a unionist.
Or maybe just a bit of a dick...
Just kidding again, Spooksy! Don't worry... We did indeed miss your hilarious contributions :)
*shrug*.
Not Labour's best moment but...
It's still less that the nats tax policy. You're not worried about the amount of money, only who it is going to.
I'm happy for student loans to again come to the centre of the campaign.
Our policy will cut the repayment times and overall debts of hundreds of thousands of graduates.
It's a winning policy, and this has been reflected in the response I have received from students at Pakuranga bus stops this week.
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