Sunday, September 11, 2005

The Polls go crazy

The polls are all over the place:

Colmar Bruton last Sunday: Nats 9 ahead
Midweek TV3: Labour 9 ahead
Herald Friday: Deadheat
SST today: Nats 7 ahead
Herald on Sunday (snap): Labour 3.5 ahead.

...with a Colmar Brunton poll coming tonight which the Herald on Sunday suggested would contrast with the SST result.

What to make of it? Two things I think. The first is that there is exceptional volatility, particularly in National's vote. Secondly, there is no doubt heading into the final week that it is very close.

In my view, a combination of the Leaders performances, and on the ground organisation to turn out the vote, will probably decide the election.

Knife edge stuff!

40 comments:

Ryan said...

Michael, do you think you can win?

Rob Good said...

He will get the last laugh if he does...

span said...

does any Labour candidate expect to win a safe National seat, when 2002 was clearly the high tide mark for Labour in that electorate??

i think part of the volatility is that the pollsters are pushing undecideds to express a preference, when really they don't know yet.

Ryan said...

Well at a lowly 58/65 on the Labour list, Labour either has great confidence in the ability of Michael to win the seat, or no real confidence in him at all, after all even Leila Boyle is five places higher at 53.

michael wood said...

Ryan, I would not be so arrogant as to make predictions as to what decisions Pakuranga voters may make on election day - we simply put the hard yards in and accept the result.

Obviously it's hard work for a Labour candidate to win in a seat with a long-standing National MP. That said, MMP means that every single Party vote we win counts, regardless of the electorate vote outcome.

Whaleoil said...

bet ya don't even make it to 8500 in both votes

Whaleoil said...

Do a Nash and give up now

Anonymous said...

Well Maurice gave up trying anything many years ago....

Whaleoil said...

Oh come on now Michaels mum, for the sake of the wee boy get him to stand aside before he humiliates himself.

Wonder if he will front at Maurices HQ unlike last time?

Anonymous said...

Wonder if Maurice will front up at the candidates' debate tonight...

Anonymous said...

No, Maurice wasn't there, but Michael wiped the floor with Judith Collins, who was at her most snarkily unattractive....

Whaleoil said...

Mikes Mum,
I didn't know things were so bad that Michael has resorted to cleaning floors to make a crust.

Cheezy said...

Hoho... Don't give up your dayjob, Whaleoil.

Anonymous said...

hmmm I must admit Collins wasn't quite as feeble as that effort from Whaleoil....

Whaleoil said...

Ummm, I don't have a day job or any job for that matter. Job is such a common word. It ranks up there with Boss, Tory etc words that you all are very familiar with.

span said...

well i must say i'm stunned - Whale Oil considers having a job beneath him. i think Whale Oil has inadvertently unmasked himself - he is in fact Charles of Windsor!

Too Right said...

Charles Windsor or Prince of Wales. Show some respect.

Cheezy said...

No wonder Whaleoil always seems so grumpy then! Having to wake up next to that every morning! :-p

You can't blame the government for that though, Whaleoil!

spooks said...

I see you have missed me. Labour with nothing positive to talk about as usual, have this time decided the most important things going on in their tiny little worlds is Whaleoil. Hey guys, if you were to spend some time looking at the issues instead of putting knives into non-candidates, you might actually see the vastly superior policies that National are offering New Zealand this election. Labour people, why are you not shouting your successes from the rooftops? Because there are none. Your only success is your staggering ability to squander other people's money, and then to invent statistics to cover your failures, and then to invent even more imaginative ways of squandering yet more of other people's money.

Anyone want to talk about Helen Clark's visits to the bribed university students? Anyone want to bet she finds an excuse to renege on her appointment at Vic Uni today?

span said...

spooks i'm quite happy to talk about Clark's Canterbury appointment yesterday - don't you find the attacks by young nats, on the basis of physical appearance, disgraceful? sure disagree on policy, but to criticise someone on the basis of their teeth?? a new low in this campaign i think.

also just to clarify yet again - i for one am not a Labour supporter, never have been.

spooks said...

Not a Labour supporter? You sure look like one the way you play the man, not the ball (post 16 above).

Why shouldn't Helen Clark's appearance be an issue? The credit card photoshop images make it so, and this was of Labour's own doing. Just another example of Labour's dishonesty.

Perhaps you'd rather talk about Helen defending her Associate Immigration Minister paying his worker less than two dollars an hour to work on the Minister's house, and then corruptly facilitating the same worker's immigration to New Zealand. And the trade unions (Michael Wood eg) don't want to know.

span said...

1. my comment about Whaleoil being the Prince of Wales was a joke - and he is actually on here to defend himself in the face of such jokes, as opposed to many others attacked by the likes of yourselves. Not saying that you shouldn't/aren't entitled to defend him yourself of course, go for it.

2. I note that Helen Clark's appearance is frequently criticised and yet few such barbs are thrown in the direction of male politicians. I'm sick of the double standard, and rather than saying nasty things about the appearances of men too I'd rather we stopped saying irrelevant and nasty things about the appearances of women. it really doesn't have any bearing on policy, or political ability. i don't see why it is considered "dishonest" for a woman to use an airbrushed photo when it isn't for men. most candidates will have had some kind of alteration to their appearance made in their publicity material, directly (computer changes) or indirectly (makeup, lighting). i find it much more concerning in cosmetic adverts and fashion mags, where they are directly misleading people about the effects of their products.

3. actually i have a very strong view about low-paid workers. i haven't followed the Taito Field saga in detail but i find exploitation of that nature abhorrent. which is one of the reasons i am a unionist.

spooks said...

Speaking of double standards, how come Bob the Builder's sore crutch joke was such an issue?

Answer? Because it was in front of a woman.

So how come when Don treats a woman with courtesy because she is a woman, that is such an issue?

Answer? God knows.

In other words, if you are National, you are damned if you do, and you are damned if you don't.

Cheezy said...

Or maybe just a bit of a dick...

Cheezy said...

Just kidding again, Spooksy! Don't worry... We did indeed miss your hilarious contributions :)

spooks said...

Oh, and as I have been repeatedly asking for the Treasury figures on graduate loans, thanks for finally releasing them. Too bad it took an Ombudsmen instruction to make you tell the truth. And too bad the figures exposed your biggest lies yet. But then, what's billion dollars here or there to Labour. Eh, another Wananga or two perhaps? Eh, another ten thousand or so public servants perhaps? Eh, another Kyoto blunder perhaps? What's a billion bucks between friends to a Labour MP? Chicken feed. Play money.

So now we have to listen to three days of lies about why Treasury is so wrong. For God Sake!

CutFoldGlue said...

*shrug*.

Not Labour's best moment but...

It's still less that the nats tax policy. You're not worried about the amount of money, only who it is going to.

michael wood said...

I'm happy for student loans to again come to the centre of the campaign.

Our policy will cut the repayment times and overall debts of hundreds of thousands of graduates.

It's a winning policy, and this has been reflected in the response I have received from students at Pakuranga bus stops this week.

spooks said...

None so blind ... ...

Michael, the Treasury figures show a ballooning of graduate debt, out to 20 billion dollars. How is that a reduction? Crazy.

CFG, not quite. It's a matter of how you look at it. You look at the National tax cuts as increasing the spend of the government pot. You have it as
income - no change
surplus - no change
payments - increased
This is silly. It does not reflect the reality. This is not what the accounts would show.

I look at it as not putting the revenue in the pot in the first place.
income - decreased
surplus - decreased
payments - no change
This is how it will be budgeted and accounted for. It is far more sensible given the obscene surpluses of recent years, surpluses not produced by Labour, but produced by hard-working taxpayers, and policies introduced by National.

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