The Shakedown

Well, people have now had some time to assess Brash's Orewa speech, National's incompetent follow-up bungling, and the government's subsequent announcements.

According to the pollsters, Labour still retains solid backing from around about 45% of the electorate, with National generally trailing by ten percentage points. For a government seeking a third term in office, that is an excellent result to begin the year with. Whatsmore, you have to ask - what gunpowder do the Nats have left? The attack on beneficiaries has failed to deliver more than a poll bump, and it is doubtful that this is even sustainable.

My prediction is that the internal tensions within National will become increasingly evident as MP's and Party figures realise that the election is unwinnable, and seek to distance themselves from Brash's cabal.

The government has a booming economy, record low unemployment, real gains in social services (ie: 30% more orthopedic operations in the last 6 months), and positive policies for working families to crow about. More importantly, Labour has a positive vision for the future. The PM's recent announcements about government measures to help increase workforce participation neatly tied together the key government themes of:

1) improving economic performance to drive up living standards;
2) focussing on the needs of ordinary working families; and
3) smart and active government that implements policies to drive the above two goals.

Contrast that with the negativity and free-market extremism of Brash and you can see why even right bloggers are writing off National's chances.

I am away for the next week so blogging will be few and far between.